Gregor Zens

Gregor Zens

Research Scholar
IIASA

Preprints and Selected Work in Progress

  • Distributional Forecasting of EU Asylum Applications with Dynamic Multivariate Count Models.
    with Jakub Bijak (University of Oxford)
    [arXiv]

  • Scalable Variable Selection and Model Averaging for Latent Regression Models Using Approximate Variational Bayes.
    with Mark F.J. Steel (University of Warwick)
    [arXiv]

  • Probabilistic Estimation of Hidden Migrant Fatalities Along the Central Mediterranean Route.
    with Zoe Sigman (Hertie School & HU Berlin)
    [arXiv]

  • Bayesian Matrix Factor Models for Demographic Analysis Across Age and Time.
    [arXiv]

  • Hidden in Plain Sight: Influential Sets in Linear Regression Models.
    with Nikolas Kuschnig (Monash University) and Jésus Crespo Cuaresma (WU Vienna)
    [updated pdf, WP]

Peer-Reviewed Publications

Journal Articles

  • Dynamic Count Models with Flexible Innovation Processes for Irregular Maritime Migration.
    G. Zens and J. Bijak (2026)
    The Annals of Applied Statistics, 20(2), 1671-1690.
    [journal, pdf]

  • Low-Rank Bilinear Autoregressive Models for Three-Way Criminal Activity Tensors.
    G. Zens, C. Díaz, D. Durante, and E. Pattachini (2026).
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), Forthcoming.
    [journal, arXiv]

  • Model Uncertainty in Latent Gaussian Models with Univariate Link Function.
    M.F.J. Steel and G. Zens (2025).
    Bayesian Analysis, Forthcoming.
    [journal, arXiv, R package]

  • Flexible Bayesian Modeling of Age-Specific Counts in Many Demographic Subpopulations.
    G. Zens (2025).
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), Forthcoming.
    [journal, arXiv]

  • Subnational Variations in the Quality of Household Survey Data in Sub-Saharan Africa.
    V. Seidler, E. C. Utazi, A. B. Finaret, S. Luckeneder, G. Zens, … & P. Webb (2025).
    Nature Communications, 16(1), 3771.
    [journal, explorer]

  • The Short-Term Dynamics of Conflict-Driven Displacement: Bayesian Modeling of Disaggregated Data from Somalia.
    G. Zens and L. Thalheimer (2025).
    The Annals of Applied Statistics, 19(1), 286-301.
    [journal, pdf]

  • Interrelated Drivers of Migration Intentions in Africa: Evidence from Afrobarometer Surveys.
    R. Hoffman and G. Zens (2024).
    Environmental Development, 52, 101096.
    [journal]

  • Ultimate Pólya Gamma Samplers - Efficient MCMC for possibly imbalanced binary and categorical data.
    G. Zens, S. Frühwirth-Schnatter & H. Wagner (2024).
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 119(548), 2548–2559.
    [journal, arXiv, R package]

  • The Heterogeneous Impact of Monetary Policy on the US Labor Market.
    G. Zens, M. Böck & T.O. Zörner (2020).
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 119, 103989.
    [journal]

  • Land and Poverty: The Role of Soil Fertility and Vegetation Quality in Poverty Reduction.
    M. P. Heger, G. Zens & M. Bangalore (2020).
    Environment and Development Economics, 25(4), 315-333.
    [journal]

  • Bayesian Shrinkage in Mixture-of-Experts Models: Identifying Robust Determinants of Class Membership.
    G. Zens (2019).
    Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, 13(4), 1019-1051.

Discussions

  • Discussion on Model Uncertainty and Missing Data: An Objective Bayesian Perspective by García-Donato et al.
    M.F.J. Steel & G. Zens (2025).
    Bayesian Analysis, 20(4): 1677-1778.
    [journal]

  • Discussion on Sparse Bayesian Factor Analysis When the Number of Factors Is Unknown by Frühwirth-Schnatter et al.
    A. Avalos-Pacheco, R. de Vito, & G. Zens (2025).
    Bayesian Analysis, 20(1): 213-344.
    [journal]

Software

Newspapers, Blogs, General Audience

(In German only, sorry!)

Awards, Fellowships, Travel Grants

Academic Visits