Gregor Zens
I am a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), where I am part of the Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) program. Previously, I worked at the Bocconi Institute for Data Science and Analytics (BIDSA) with Daniele Durante and at the Institute for Statistics and Mathematics at WU Vienna with Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter. I obtained my PhD in economics with a focus on Bayesian econometrics at WU Vienna, under the supervision of Jésus Crespo Cuaresma and Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter and have also served as a statistical consultant for the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development and the International Finance Corporation within the World Bank Group.
Research Focus
My research centers on creating empirical models to analyze social science phenomena, frequently utilizing Bayesian methods. I work with economists, statisticians, climate researchers, and demographers, focusing on applications related to human migration and development issues. Methodologically, I am particularly interested in statistics and econometrics, with an emphasis on applied probabilistic modeling and computational techniques. Below are some of my ongoing and past projects.
Pre-Prints, Selected Work in Progress
Model Uncertainty in Latent Gaussian Models with Univariate Link Function.
[arXiv, R package]
with Mark Steel (University of Warwick)
(Submitted)Flexible Bayesian Modeling of Age-Specific Counts in Many Demographic Subpopulations. [arXiv]
(Submitted)Subnational Variations in the Quality of Population Health Data: A Geospatial Analysis of Household Surveys in Africa. [WP]
with Andrew Tatem (University of Southampton, WorldPop), Patrick Webb (Tufts University), Amelia Finaret (Allegheny College), Valentin Seidler (WU Vienna) and more
(In Revision)Hidden in Plain Sight: Influential sets in linear regression models. [updated pdf, WP]
with Nikolas Kuschnig (WU Vienna) and Jésus Crespo Cuaresma (WU Vienna).
(Submitted)Bayesian Network Modeling of Crime Data.
with Daniele Durante (Bocconi University), Eleonora Patacchini (Cornell University) and Carlos Díaz (Universidad Católica del Uruguay)
Publications in Peer-Reviewed Journals
Articles
Interrelated Drivers of Migration Intentions in Africa: Evidence from Afrobarometer Surveys. [journal]
Environmental Development, 2024.
with Roman Hoffmann (IIASA / WIC)The Short-Term Dynamics of Conflict-Driven Displacement: Bayesian Modeling of Disaggregated Data from Somalia. [pdf]
The Annals of Applied Statistics, In Press.
with Lisa Thalheimer (United Nations University)Ultimate Pólya Gamma Samplers - Efficient MCMC for possibly imbalanced binary and categorical data. [journal, arXiv, R package]
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2023.
with Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter (WU Vienna) and Helga Wagner (JKU Linz).The Heterogeneous Impact of Monetary Policy on the US Labor Market. [journal]
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2020.
with Maximilian Böck (WU Vienna) and Thomas Zörner (WU Vienna).Land and Poverty: The Role of Soil Fertility and Vegetation Quality in Poverty Reduction. [journal]
Environment and Development Economics, 2020.
with Martin Heger (World Bank) and Mook Bangalore (London School of Economics).Bayesian Shrinkage in Mixture-of-Experts Models: Identifying Robust Determinants of Class Membership.
Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, 2019.
Master’s Thesis.
Discussions
- Discussion on Sparse Bayesian Factor Analysis When the Number of Factors Is Unknown by Frühwirth-Schnatter S., Hosszejni D., and Freitas Lopes H. [journal]
Bayesian Analysis, In Press.
with Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco (JKU Linz) and Roberta De Vito (Brown University)
Software
- R Package
LatentBMA
for model averaging in latent Gaussian models, currently in v0.1.1.
[CRAN, vignette, methods paper] - R Package
UPG
for efficient Bayesian logistic regression, currently in v0.3.4.
[CRAN, vignette, methods paper]
Newspapers, Blogs, General Audience
(In German only, sorry!)
Ausserirdische Ökonomische Daten.
On satellite-based economic research. derStandard.at, January 2020.Wie wir unbewusst dabei helfen, die Zukunft vorherzusagen.
On internet-based data sources. derStandard.at, December 2019.Soziale Leiter: Können Arme reich und Reiche arm werden?.
On social mobility perceptions. derStandard.at, July 2019.
Presentations at Conferences, Seminars and Workshops
- IFAS Research Seminar. (Linz, 11/2024)
- CPC-CG Research Seminar. (Southampton, 10/2024)
- ISBA World Meeting 2024. (Venice, 07/2024)
- European Population Conference 2024. (Edinburgh, 06/2024)
- Austrian & Czech Statistical Days 2024. (Vienna, 04/2024)
- IUSSP Workshop ‘Population and Conflict’. (Southampton, 03/2024)
- 16th International Conference on Computational and Methodological Statistics. (Berlin, 12/2023)
- Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2023 ‘Exploring Population Heterogeneities’. (Vienna, 12/2023)
- Austrian Statistical Days 2023. (Vienna, 10/2023)
- eXplore! Workshop ‘Climate change, mobility and vulnerable populations in complex systems’. (Vienna, 07/2023)
- GENPOP/POPCLIMA Seminar Series, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna. (Bologna, 10/2022)
- 1st Bergamo Workshop in Econometrics and Statistics. (Bergamo, 09/2022)
- SELECT Workshop ‘Climbing Mortality Models’. (Misurina, 08/2022)
- eXplore! Workshop ‘Migration Modelling and Climate Change Research’. (Vienna, 08/2022)
- ISBA World Meeting 2022. (Montréal, 06/2022)
- Austrian & Slovenian Statistical Days 2022. (Graz, 04/2022)
- 5th International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics. (Online, 06/2022)
- Reading Group, Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University. (Milan, 02/2022)
- 15th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics. (Online, 12/2021)
- Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting 2021. (Online, 09/2021)
- 11th European Seminar on Bayesian Econometrics. (Madrid, 09/2021)
- ISBA Mirror Workshop @ CIRM. (Marseille, 06/2021)
- ISBA World Meeting 2021. (Online, 06/2021)
- 4th International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics. (Online, 06/2021)
- Annual Meeting of the Austrian Economic Association (NOeG 2021). (Online, 06/2021)
- Bayes@Austria Workshop. (Online, 11/2020)
- Annual Meeting of the Austrian Economic Association (NOeG 2020). (Vienna, 02/2020)
- 10th European Seminar on Bayesian Econometrics. (St. Andrews, 09/2019)
- 3rd International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics. (Taichung, 06/2019)
- 6th WU Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX VI). (Vienna, 06/2018)
Awards, Fellowships, Travel Grants
- Award of Excellence / State Prize for Dissertations of the Austrian Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research, 2022
- Best Student/Postdoc Contributed Paper Award, ISBA World Meeting 2021
- ISBA - EFaB Young Researcher Award, European Seminar on Bayesian Econometrics 2021
- WU International Research Fellowship, 2021
- Dissertation Fellowship of the Austrian Economic Association, 2020
Academic Visits
- Department of Statistics, University of Warwick. Hosted by Mark Steel. 09/2021.
Teaching & Thesis Supervision
I have taught several undergraduate courses on basic econometrics and linear modeling, economic development, economic growth, and macroeconomic theory. Additionally, I have delivered graduate-level lectures on macroeconometric methods, focusing on Bayesian computation. I have also supervised several bachelor’s and master’s theses. Examples of past thesis topics include “The importance of digitized government-to-person (G2P) payments for women’s financial inclusion in developing countries” and “Nowcasting GDP growth in Austria via the construction of a daily economic sentiment index using Google Trends”.
Contact
zens [at] iiasa.ac.at
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Population and Just Societies Program
Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria